Respostas para [Forecast Q2-2025] - Tulip Mania

A   Centuries before anyone ever heard of high-tech stocks such as Qualcomm, CMGI, or Cisco Systems, a tulip in17th century Holland caused quite the stir. 2The Semper Augustus was a tulip of extraordinary grandeur, with midnight blue petal stopped by a pure white band and highlighted with crimson flares. For the Dutch, there were few things more valuable than the Semper Augustus tulips.

B   Around 1624, there were only a dozen specimens of the Semper Augustus. A man from Amsterdam owned all of the specimens. The man was offered 3,000 guilders in Dutch currency for just one bulb of the specimen. At the time, that was an absurd amount. 6The well-known Dutch painter Rembrandt Harmenszoon van Rijn received only about half of that amount a few years later for his The Night Watch painting. Despite the apparently exorbitant offer for just one of his tulip bulbs, the Dutch man, whose name has been lost in history, declined the offer.

C   At that time, people wondered who was wackier, the man who refused to sell a tulip bulb for a fortune or the man who had offered to pay a fortune for just one bulb. 1This question was explored extensively by British journalist Mike Dash in his book, The Story of the World's Most Coveted Flower and the Extraordinary Passions It Aroused. In his account of tulip mania, Dash details the history behind the buzzword and, in doing so, he presents a cautionary tale for modern-day investors, who are often inclined to load up on unproven and yet-to-be-profitable stocks, similar to the tulip mania that raged in Holland in the 17th century.

D   It should be pointed out that the Dutch were not the first people to go bonkers over tulips. 3Long before the first tulips ever bloomed in Europe, the Persians had already fallen in love with the beauty of the flower, and the rulers of the Ottoman Empire held it in the highest regard, dating back to a time around 1559. However, when the tulip finally arrived in Holland, the flower seemed to find an even more fertile ground, and not just from a horticultural standpoint.

E   In the early 17th century, Holland was entering its Golden Age. 11Time, energy, and financial resources that had previously been used in fighting for Holland's independence from Spain were now available to be used for commerce. 7The city of Amsterdam was the hub of lucrative trade with the East Indies and a single voyage to the East Indies could result in substantial profits for the merchants involved in those activities. Those merchants often flaunted their success by building great estates, many landscaped with magnificent flower gardens.

F   Then along came the tulip. “It is impossible to comprehend the tulip mania without understanding just how different tulips were from every other flower known to horticulturists in the 17th century: 12The colours they exhibited were brighter than those of ordinary plants, ”Dash explains. Although the rarer tulips sometimes commanded higher prices, the bulbs for most ordinary tulips were sold by the pound for a modest price. Then, around 1630, a different type of tulip fancier appeared on the scene. Motivated by thoughts of great profits, these “florists” or professional tulip traders set out to find flower enthusiasts and speculators alike. But even as the number of tulip buyers grew quickly, the supply of tulip bulbs remained stagnant. It seems that the tulip became a foil in the supply squeeze：8there was no quick fix to increase the quantity of available bulbs, as it takes seven years for a tulip to grow from a seed. Even though bulbs can produce two or three offshoots annually, the mother bulb lasts only a few years.

G   13Tulip bulb prices continued to soar throughout the 1630s, as more speculators wedged into the market.9Even people in other occupations wanted in on the tulip trading business. Weavers and farmers mortgaged their assets in order to get into the tulip market. In 1633, a farmhouse in Hoorn was sold in exchange for three rare bulbs. By 1636, the tulip trading business was flourishing so much that even “garbage” bulbs were being sold for hundreds of guilders. Eventually, a futures market for bulbs was even established. Tulip mania reached its zenith during the winter of 1636-1637, when some bulbs were known to be bought and sold up to ten times a day. Exemplifying this mania is the story of an auction that was held to benefit seven orphans whose only asset was 70 fine tulips left by their father. 4One of those bulbs, a rare Violetten Admirael van Enkhuizen bulb, sold for 5,200 guilders, an all-time record. All told, the 70 flowers from that auction brought in nearly 53,000 guilders.

H   There is a saying that goes, “All good things must come to an end. ”That was certainly the case with the tulip market, which crashed quickly and spectacularly. 5It wasn’t long after the above-mentioned orphan auction, when buyers refused to pay high asking prices at a routine bulb auction in Haarlem. In just a matter of days, the word of this auction spread all over the country, creating widespread panic among tulip traders and speculators. And, sure enough，the market for tulips crashed quickly thereafter. Tulips that had sold for 5,000 guilders only a few weeks before now fetched only 50 guilders.

I   In comparing the tulip mania of the 17th century with the recent dot-com craze, there is one major difference：even at its height, the Amsterdam Stock Exchange never touched tulips. “The speculation in tulip bulbs always existed at the margins of Dutch economic life, ”Dash points out. 10As tulip trading was at the periphery of the Dutch economy, the fallout had little effect on the Dutch economy. Will we be able to say the same when Wall Street's current obsession with the dot-com craze finally runs its course?